China, as we all know, has its eye on Taiwan. And it is to invest US$3.7 billion over the next five years in a specific reunification project. But no, this money isn’t to be spent on weapons, as some Western hawks may assume, but ports in Fujian – and not even military ports at that. In place of threats and confrontation will be the gentle (well relatively!) and persuasive art of shipping commerce.
Chinese leaders have time on their side (arguably because they’re not stuck in any short-term electoral cycle) and they would rather achieve reunification peacefully in 50 years rather than through war in the coming 10. Tellingly, when I talk to businesspeople – not necessarily politicians – anywhere near Southern China, including in Hong Kong and Taiwan, they all feel that re-unification will happen. But slowly, smoothly – the Chinese way.
China has already managed its reunification with Hong Kong in 1997 and Macao in 1999 extremely smartly. Sure, Taiwan is rather different… but the Kuomintang (KMT) party is expected to win the next Taiwan elections in 2008 and they want to expand trade, mail and communication with the mainland. Their leader Ma Ying-Jeou is backed by many important businessmen in Hong Kong and Taiwan and their vice-chairman, Chiang Pin-Kun, even visited Beijing last year.
I think the Fujian port scheme and its peaceful political intentions are both impressive. Can you hear the breaking of the Taiwan Strait ice?
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